A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
