Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
